Agricultural exports enter 2025 with solid demand, new regulatory requirements, and logistics that are more expensive and volatile than in previous years. If you export from Latin America, here is the outlook with updated data and practical steps to gain competitiveness.
1) Global agri-food trade remains robust, albeit with more moderate prices
- In 2022, global agri-food exports reached US$2.0 trillion, an all-time high, according to the WTO. In 2023, the value of global trade moderated due to falling prices, but volumes remained resilient.
- What does this mean for your business? Demand exists; price competition is intensifying. Differentiating yourself through quality, traceability, and compliance will be more profitable than competing solely on cost.
2) Latin America consolidates its role as a key supplier
- Brazil set a historic record in 2023 with US$166.5 billion in agribusiness exports, driven by soybeans, meat, and sugar/ethanol.
- In 2023, Mexico recorded agri-food exports worth over US$53 billion, with a trade surplus for the ninth consecutive year.
- Peru closed 2023 with approximately US$10.9 billion in agricultural exports, led by blueberries, grapes, and avocados.
- What does this mean? The region is growing in volume and added value. Buyers expect professional operators with international standards (BPA/BPM, GlobalG.A.P., SMETA, organic, etc.).
3) The EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) redefines requirements for coffee, cocoa, soy, beef, palm oil, rubber, and timber.
- The EUDR applies from December 30, 2024, for operators and large companies supplying the EU; for micro and small companies, from June 30, 2025.
- It requires due diligence, geolocation of plots, and evidence that the products do not come from land that has been deforested or degraded after December 31, 2020.
- What does this mean? If you sell any of these raw materials (or derivatives) to the EU, you will need maps of polygons/parcels, traceability systems, and robust compliance documentation.
4) Logistics and cold chain: a critical part of the margin
- Around 14% of food is lost between harvest and retail worldwide, before reaching the consumer. Fresh fruit and vegetables account for the largest losses.
- Refrigerated maritime trade is around 130–140 million tons per year and continues to grow; reefer capacity is in demand, and disruptions (weather, detours in the Red Sea, congestion) have led to episodes of triple-digit year-on-year spot rate increases since 2024.
- What does this mean? Careful packaging management, pre-cooling, modified atmosphere, and insurance, plus diversified logistics contracts, can protect 3–7 margin points in peak campaigns.
5) Premium niches: organic and certified sustainability continue to climb
- The global market for organic food and beverages reached €135 billion in 2022; the United States and the EU lead consumption, with the US exceeding €56 billion.
- What does this mean? Organic and fair trade/ethical certifications can open doors to retailers with better prices, but they require discipline in traceability, waste, and segregation.
How to prepare yourself in 90 days
- Compliance diagnosis: map your products, destinations, and requirements (EUDR, FSMA/FSVP, MRLs by market, LMRs, and residue levels). Define gaps and schedule.
- Geospatial traceability: survey polygons/plots and link them to lots, suppliers, and documents (titles, permits). Consider satellite solutions and MRV.
- Annual logistics plan: reserve reefer capacity, establish contracts with contingency clauses, and define packaging profiles by destination (sizes, materials, atmospheres).
- Portfolio and markets: prioritize 2–3 SKUs with the best contribution; diversify destinations within the same block (e.g., EU: Netherlands/Germany/Spain) to spread risk.
- Working capital financing: negotiates pre- and post-shipment lines; uses forwarders and insurers to structure credit and weather-related parametric insurance.
Express checklist
- Do you have all your parcels geolocated (if you export EUDR commodities to the EU)?
- Is your laboratory validated for waste according to destination?
- Do you have two alternative logistics routes and two shipping companies per trade lane?
- Do your contracts include quality tolerances and claims?
- Is your sustainability storytelling documented (not just marketing)?
Conclusion
2025 rewards exporters who combine data, compliance, and logistics execution. If you organize your traceability, secure your cold chain, and choose your niches wisely, you will be able to capture value despite volatility.
Would you like a quick diagnosis and an actionable plan for your exports in 15 days? Contact us at Sembrar and schedule an initial consultation at no cost.
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