Agricultural exports are entering 2026 with strong demand, more volatile logistics costs, and new regulatory requirements. For producers, packers, and traders in Latin America, understanding the numbers and managing operations with precision is the difference between capturing profit margins and losing them.

7 Key Facts That Define the Market in 2026

• Market size: Global trade in agri-food products exceeded US$2 trillion in 2023 and accounted for about 10% of total merchandise trade. Source: World Trade Organization (WTO), World Trade Statistical Review 2024.
• Leading exporters: In 2023, Brazil set a record with US$166.5 billion in agribusiness exports; the United States ended 2023 with approximately US$179 billion in agricultural exports. Sources: Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture (MAPA/Secex) and USDA.
• Key importers: China, the European Union, and the United States remain the leading importers by value; China’s agri-food purchases recently exceeded US$200 billion. Source: UN Comtrade/ITC; see also WTO reports.
• Logistics Under Pressure: The 2024 Red Sea crisis drove up spot container rates on Asia–Europe routes by 200% to 300% and added 10–15 days to some transit times, with “spillover” effects on other routes. Source: UNCTAD, 2024 reports on maritime disruptions.
• Post-harvest losses: About 14% of food is lost before it reaches retail; fruits and vegetables are the most affected, which erodes export profitability if the cold chain and processes are not optimized. Source: FAO, The State of Food and Agriculture (SOFA) on food losses.
• Phytosanitary digitization: More than 100 countries are integrated into the IPPC’s ePhyto system for electronic phytosanitary certificates, which reduces processing times and documentation errors at the border. Source: IPPC ePhyto.
• Sustainability regulations: The EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) takes effect on December 30, 2024, for large companies, and on June 30, 2025, for SMEs, covering coffee, cocoa, soy, beef, palm oil, rubber, and timber (and certain derivatives). It requires geographic traceability and due diligence. Source: European Commission.

Opportunities 2026: Where to Focus

• North America’s Fresh Produce Market: U.S. imports of fruits and vegetables have grown steadily over the past decade, led by avocados, berries, table grapes, bell peppers, and tomatoes. For Latin American exporters with an off-season window, the price differential and logistical proximity are key drivers. Source: USDA ERS/FAS.
• The European Union in value-added coffee and cocoa: The combination of stable demand and the EUDR is driving compliant, traceable origins to command higher prices through certifications and micro-lots. The EU is one of the world’s largest markets for green coffee and cocoa products. Sources: ICO, European Commission.
• Middle East (GCC) in fruits and vegetables: The region imports a high proportion of its food (in several countries, more than 80%), with growth in the modern retail sector and a preference for high-quality products and a stable supply. Source: FAO/World Bank; GCC national statistics.
• East Asia in proteins and processed foods: In addition to grains and oilseeds, demand is growing for tropical fruits, roasted coffee, and healthy snacks. Source: ITC Trade Map/UN Comtrade.

10 Concrete Steps to Boost Competitiveness This Year

• Adjust your market mix based on data: compare FOB/CIF prices, transit times, and tariffs by product and destination; prioritize routes with the least logistical variability in Q2–Q4 2026.
• Ensure quality: invest in pre-cooling, coatings, and modified atmosphere packaging; reducing waste by 2 points can add 1–3 points to the net margin in the fresh produce category.
• Digitize your documentation: implement ePhyto and EDI with your shipping line or freight forwarder; reduce rejections and cut clearance times to 24–72 hours, depending on the route.
• Use a hybrid approach to charter freight: combine forward contracts for 60–70% of the volume and spot contracts for the remainder; include contingency clauses for route deviations (Red Sea/Panama).
• Prepare for EUDR compliance (if applicable): map georeferenced polygons of land parcels, preserve evidence of no deforestation, and validate your due diligence system with an external auditor.
• Set your offering apart: add certifications with proven value in your niche (e.g., Rainforest, Organic, GlobalG.A.P.) and highlight them in your product specifications and quote.
• Improve your forecast: integrate weather and phenology into a 12–18-month S&OP; reduce excess freight reservations and no-show penalties.
• Optimize trade terms: define Incoterms based on the customer and country risk; for new destinations, start with letters of credit or export credit insurance.
• Manage MRLs and SPS: Maintain an MRL matrix by destination and crop; align your application and harvest schedule to avoid rejections at the border.
• Sell with data: Create quotes that show price history, expected returns, and a compliance plan; shorten the sales cycle and improve conversion rates.

Practical Metrics for Your Monthly Dashboard

• Container fill rate and total shrinkage by route and week.
• Days to port and days to the east, by destination.
• Percentage of phytosanitary certificates issued via ePhyto.
• Percentage of lots with georeferenced traceability (if the EUDR applies).
• Compliance with MRLs based on internal analyses vs. third-party laboratory analyses.
• Variation in spot rates vs. contract rates on critical routes.

How We Help You at Sembrar

• Market intelligence and pricing: analysis by product and destination, including prices, tariffs, and seasonality.
• Logistics optimization: design of route and contract portfolios, and contingency plans.
• Compliance and Traceability