The global agri-food trade enters 2025 with high demand in developed markets, new sustainability and traceability rules, and greater sensitivity to climate shocks. For exporters in Latin America and the Caribbean, this opens up concrete opportunities if regulatory and operational adjustments are implemented in a timely manner.
Data that sets the context in 2025
- Global food imports reached around USD 2.0 trillion in 2023 and remained at historically high levels in 2024, reflecting resilient demand despite the global economic slowdown (FAO, Food Outlook).
- Latin America and the Caribbean is the largest net food exporter, accounting for approximately 15–16% of the value of global agri-food trade, with a strong presence in coffee, meat, fruits, and oilseeds (FAO, SOCO 2024).
- The United States, the largest agricultural importer, purchased nearly USD 200 billion in 2023. In addition, 55% of fresh fruit and 35% of fresh vegetables consumed in the U.S. are imported, which sustains trade opportunities for the region (USDA-ERS/FAS).
- The European Union imported more than EUR 160 billion worth of agri-food products in 2023, consolidating its position as a premium market with growing environmental and traceability requirements (European Commission, DG AGRI).
7 trends that will define agricultural exports in 2025
1) Buyers demand traceability "from the batch to the shelf."
- From January 20, 2026, the US will require extended traceability for foods listed on the Food Traceability List (FSMA 204), which includes several high-value fruits and vegetables (e.g., berries, melons, mangoes, leafy greens, tomatoes). 2025 is the year to pilot systems and clean up master data.
What it means:
- Capture Key Data Elements (KDEs) at each Critical Tracking Event (CTE) in your chain.
- Standardized batch identifiers and links between harvest, packaging, transport, and reception.
2) EUDR: mandatory geolocation for sensitive commodities.
- The EU Regulation on Deforestation (EUDR) applies from December 30, 2024, for large operators and from June 30, 2025, for SMEs. It affects coffee, cocoa, soy, beef, palm, rubber, and wood (and various derivatives).
What it means:
- Prove that your lots do not come from deforested or degraded land after December 31, 2020.
- Provide geographic coordinates of production units and perform documented due diligence.
3) Climate and volatility: plan harvests and hedging.
- The 2023–2024 El Niño phenomenon reduced exports of Peruvian blueberries and other fruits, highlighting the need to diversify origins, adjust schedules, and strengthen post-harvest practices.
- In cocoa, the global deficit for 2023/24 estimated by the ICCO exceeded 300,000 tons and drove prices to historic highs in 2024; the shortage could continue into 2025, affecting input costs and value-added contracts.
4) Commercial windows in the US and Canada for "food nearshoring."
- The combination of stable consumption and seasons that are out of sync with South America maintains opportunities for berries, table grapes, citrus fruits, avocados, mangoes, and vegetables, especially with programs that ensure year-round supply and FSMA compliance.
5) Price differentials for verifiable sustainability.
- Zero deforestation protocols, water management, carbon reduction, and credible certifications (e.g., Rainforest Alliance, organic with equivalence) translate into premiums or preferential access in EU and UK retail. 2025 will see more responsible sourcing audits of LATAM suppliers.
6) Digitization of the cold chain and reduction of waste.
- The steady growth of reefer trade and pressure for safety is driving IoT sensors and temperature/shock visibility in transit. Integrating this data into your traceability reduces claims and improves your position with FSMA 204.
7) Professionalization of logistics and quality contracts.
- After years of freight volatility, importers value programs with KPIs for filling, OTIF, and quality specifications with clear tolerances. Those who document performance with data have an advantage in 2025/26 renewals.
Practical checklist for the next 90 days
- Map EUDR risks: identify plots/production units, collect GPS coordinates, and cross-reference with post-2020 deforestation maps. Define your due diligence statement by product/batch.
- Align your traceability system with FSMA 204: define the CTEs in your operation, the KDEs, and the exchange formats with customers/carriers. Run a test from harvest to buyer reception.
- Cleans and standardizes master data: batches, producers, plots, inputs, packaging, and carriers. Prevents duplicates/inconsistencies that break traceability.
- Strengthen service agreements: define cold chain KPIs, loading windows, contingency plans, and documented claims management.
- Validate market requirements: for the EU, make sure you know whether your product or ingredient falls under the EUDR; for the US, check whether it is on the Food Traceability List and what exemptions apply, if any.
- Evaluate certifications and evidence: prioritize those that your customers truly value; prepare audits with verifiable records.
- Diversify schedule and origin: offset climate risks by scheduling alternate suppliers and flexibility in packaging/transportation.
How Sembrar helps you
- EUDR and FSMA 204 diagnosis: we assess gaps, design implementation plans, and evidence formats.
- Implementation of "batch-by-batch" traceability: configuration of KDEs/CTEs, geolocation of plots, integration with field and logistics systems.
- Commercial support: adaptation of specifications, contracts, and KPIs for buyers in the US and EU.
Contact us at www.sembrar.info for a free initial consultation and a demo of our compliance and traceability tools.
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