If you are involved in the export of fresh fruit and vegetables, 2026 brings favorable winds and new requirements. Below, we summarize five key trends backed by recent data and explain how you can capitalize on them now.

1) Premium demand in Asia continues to drive the market

• What's happening: China has consolidated its position as the leading importer of high-value fruits (cherries, blueberries, avocados, grapes).
• Data:
  • Chinese imports under HS chapter 08 (edible fruits and nuts) exceeded USD 16 billion in 2022, with sustained growth over the last decade [5].
  • Global agricultural trade reached USD 2.0 trillion in 2022, driven by higher prices and post-pandemic recovery [1].
• Why it matters: The urban middle class in China and Southeast Asia pays a premium for quality, condition, and food safety. Exporters who guarantee firmness, Brix levels, and traceability command better prices.
• How to enter better:
  • Close counter-season window programs with importers that already manage maturation and e-commerce.
  • Adjust post-harvest and packaging to specific channel specifications (retail vs. online platforms).
  • Ensures current phytosanitary protocols and residue testing per batch.

2) Lower freight costs than in 2021-2022, but with volatility

• What's happening: After reaching historic highs in 2021, container costs normalized during 2023, although episodes of disruption persist.
• Data:
  • The Drewry World Container Index averaged around USD 2,400 per FEU in 2023, compared to peaks above USD 10,000 in 2021 [7].
• Why it matters: export margins are once again viable for cost-sensitive products (mangoes, pineapples, bananas). However, volatility makes it necessary to ensure cold storage capacity and route flexibility.
• What to do:
  • Negotiate refrigerated spaces with seasonal contracts and contingency clauses.
  • Optimize density and stowage; small adjustments can save 2-4% in cost per box.
  • Integrates IoT temperature/humidity monitoring to reduce claims.

3) Avocado and berries: the drivers of value

• What's happening: The categories that add the most value to the fruit and vegetable portfolio continue to be avocados and berries (blueberries, raspberries, blackberries).
• Data:
  • Global avocado exports (HS 080440): nearly USD 7.4 billion in 2022, more than double the figure from a decade ago [3].
  • Global exports of blueberries and other Vaccinium (HS 081040): around USD 2.5–2.7 billion in 2022 [4].
  • Chapter HS 08 (fruits and nuts) exceeded USD 170 billion in global exports in 2022 [2].
• Why it matters: Buyers in the US, EU, and Asia demand scheduled supply, firmness, and uniformity. Countries that increase acreage with modern genetics and good post-harvest management capture premiums.
• Where are the gaps:
  • Counterseason windows and blueberry color/size niches.
  • Ready-to-ripen (RTE) programs for avocados, with dry matter standards.
• Key steps:
  • Invest in pre-cooling and controlled ethylene.
  • Certify BPA/BPM and sustainability schemes for retail access.

4) Mandatory traceability and compliance: the new cost of entry

• What's happening: High-value markets demand batch traceability and supply chain transparency. In the US, the FSMA Traceability Rule (FSMA 204) comes into effect with obligations from January 2026 for traceable foods; in the EU, due diligence and deforestation frameworks are advancing for certain commodities.
• Data:
  • The Traceability Rule (FSMA 204) requires recording and sharing "Key Data Elements" and "Critical Tracking Events" for a list of traceable foods, improving recall and tracking capabilities in hours, not days [6].
  • GLOBALG.A.P. surpassed 200,000 certified producers worldwide (fruit and vegetables), an indicator of the adoption of private standards by suppliers [9].
• Why it matters: Without traceability and documentary verification, it is difficult to enter top retailers and maintain positions in audits.
• What to do:
  • Map chain from plot to destination with unique lots, GLNs/GTINs, and digital records.
  • Prepare contingency plans and response times of less than 24 hours.
  • Align labels and EDI with your buyers' requirements.

5) The EU and the US maintain their leadership in imports, with clear preferences.

• What's happening: The United States and the European Union continue to account for the highest value of fresh fruit imports, with a preference for quality, sustainability, and low residues.
• Data:
  • Global agri-food trade in 2022 shows the EU and the US among the largest net importers of fruit and vegetables by value [1][2].
  • In the US, imports of fruits and nuts have maintained an upward trend over the last decade, with strong growth in avocados, berries, and table grapes [10].
  • In the EU, extra-EU imports of HS chapter 08 exceeded €20 billion in 2022, with tropical fruits and berries showing particular dynamism [2].
• Why it matters: it requires compliance with MRLs, labor/socio-environmental ethics, and consistency 52 weeks a year.
• What to do:
  • Design "compliance dossiers" by product/market (MRLs, packaging materials, labeling, language).
  • Stand out with accreditations (GLOBALG.A.P., GRASP, SMETA) and carbon/water evidence if your buyer requests it.

Actionable opportunities for 2026

• Products with the best risk/return ratio: avocado (RTE programs), early/late blueberries, seedless grapes of licensed varieties, mangoes from air freight to premium niches, organic bananas with European retail.
• Markets to prioritize:
  • Asia: China and Hong Kong for cherries, grapes, blueberries, and avocados with current protocols.
  • North America: U.S. and Canada for avocados and berries with a focus on FSMA 204 traceability.
  • EU: Germany, Netherlands, and Spain for bananas/avocados/berries